e-Poster Presentation Clinical Oncology Society of Australia Annual Scientific Meeting 2021

Australia’s expected cancer prevalence over 5 years and modelled impact health care costs and service delivery (#261)

Eleonora Feletto 1 , Marianne F Weber 1 , Michael Caruana 1 , Philip Haywood 2 3 , Tracey-Lea Laba 2 , Kwun Fong 4 , David Goldsbury 1 3 , Pietro Procopio 1 5 , Julia Steinberg 1 , Karen Canfell 1
  1. The Daffodil Centre, Woolloomooloo, NSW, Australia
  2. Centre for Health Economics Research and Evaluation, The University of Technology, Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  3. The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia
  4. Thoracic Research Centre, The Prince Charles Hospital, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, Australia
  5. Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Aims: The health system costs of cancer and the prioritisation of subsidies for future patient needs are among the most important health policy and research topics in Australia. Evidence-based estimates of future cancer burden are needed to inform appropriate investment and guide decision making. The Cancer-Patient Population Projections (Cancer-PPP) project aims to estimate the number of patients likely to require treatment at different stages over 5 years for breast cancer, lung cancer, bowel cancer, multiple myeloma, melanoma and tumours with selected pan-tumour biomarkers (e.g. MSI-H, NTRK fusion).

Methods: Cancer-PPP uses a customised Policy1 platform, incorporating statistical and simulation modelling, to integrate multiple datasets and produce reliable projections of cancer outcomes, while comparing multiple “what if” scenarios that incorporate existing and new cancer interventions and treatments.

Results: Work on Cancer-PPP commenced in 2020 and will continue to 2024. Selected early projections show colorectal cancer incidence is estimated to continue increasing in people under 50 years and prevalence will be impacted by uptake of screening and treatment advancements. For multiple myeloma, incidence rates are projected to increase and mortality rates to decrease to 2040, which would lead to increasing prevalence for a largely incurable and costly cancer. Preliminary results for lung cancer have demonstrated that the cost of treating stage 4 patients has almost doubled over 5 years and this will be applied to estimated prevalent cases to predict the future impact on health care costs.

Conclusion: Final projections will be informed by ongoing research on treatment pathways, economic analysis, disease natural history and associated interventions. Our research will deliver new estimates to prepare Australian health authorities for future trends and effects on expenditure. At its conclusion, Cancer-PPP will inform future health technology assessments by combining complex trends in cancer epidemiology, health system requirements and costs.